Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 42.374265 49.940951 58.204538 67.865254 78.813809 90.800637 104.879684
2025-01-05 30.532122 40.454914 52.323941 67.418398 85.942057 107.763527 135.230026
2025-01-12 25.688553 37.138735 51.776350 71.535869 97.148867 128.838190 170.569937
2025-01-19 19.558947 30.751541 45.989407 67.723785 97.322989 135.565808 187.942905
2025-01-26 16.951306 28.566233 45.211327 70.018722 105.132950 152.037155 218.213268
2025-02-02 15.528980 27.792270 46.155857 74.554595 116.058276 173.025363 255.349136
2025-02-09 13.764939 26.163126 45.552742 76.635309 123.475412 189.444546 286.944602
2025-02-16 12.127209 24.449304 44.547102 77.887004 129.597369 204.189604 316.739058
2025-02-23 10.501132 22.476096 42.848928 77.807852 133.574383 215.896332 342.590592
2025-03-02 8.883114 20.237338 40.412095 76.240212 135.024749 223.810253 363.134009
2025-03-09 7.708066 18.627171 38.832091 75.864696 138.198804 234.302337 387.746812
2025-03-16 6.199387 16.075347 35.245736 71.694326 134.870158 234.572074 396.898547
2025-03-23 5.567798 15.353742 35.148527 73.972660 142.937818 253.903059 437.490068
2025-03-30 4.685737 13.915409 33.521626 73.399895 146.274427 266.154661 468.137354
2025-04-06 4.406531 13.821112 34.545060 77.810146 158.478652 293.260303 523.254825
2025-04-13 3.449924 11.819554 31.317882 73.722339 155.285306 294.852610 537.669596
2025-04-20 3.132799 11.405005 31.430366 76.183414 164.045361 316.749342 585.772884
2025-04-27 3.007912 11.496652 32.680829 81.044854 177.519196 347.217500 649.072470
2025-05-04 2.728057 11.070255 32.672787 83.273720 186.143481 369.684677 699.890380
2025-05-11 2.431226 10.514113 32.273078 84.614191 193.115533 389.535223 747.004863
2025-05-18 2.102221 9.759644 31.270677 84.529432 197.267644 404.540449 786.398627
2025-05-25 1.751849 8.817419 29.636490 82.850546 198.100219 413.577096 815.813922
2025-06-01 1.502315 8.151187 28.616170 82.448322 201.438633 427.238150 853.658957